St. Paul, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

478
FXUS63 KMPX 090504
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1204 AM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- General warming trend continues through the weekend.

- Isolated to scattered rain showers Wednesday into Thursday,
  then more low chances for the weekend. No significant
  precipitation amounts expected for the next 7-10 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

A quiet day today. Temperatures are rising into the 40s and low
50s while dew points have mixed out into the teens and single
digits, bringing very low RH values in some locations. Winds
have been light, although some gusts of 20 kts are being
measured in western MN. The increase in winds is in response to
an approaching area of low pressure that may bring a few showers
to the region through Thursday. The first wave will pass
through later tonight. Despite the very dry airmass in place
now, observations to the west do show increased surface moisture
and forecast soundings attempt to saturate after midnight.
Increased PoPs tonight, but only to 20-30 percent. Any activity
will be scattered and not well-organized. The wave will advance
east for Wednesday, confining shower activity more to northern
MN and WI. Later Wednesday and Wednesday night, several vort
maxes will rotate across the Upper Midwest within a broad
trough and should facilitate an uptick in shower activity again
Wednesday night and Thursday. By Thursday night, the trough
digs into the southeastern U.S. and ridging begins to build into
the Upper Midwest.

The ridging will bring above normal temperatures for the
weekend. Another trough approaching from the Pacific Northwest
will spawn an area of low pressure across the northern Plains
Saturday, tracking northeast to far northern MN or southern
Canada Sunday. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s Friday will
warm into the 70s by Sunday as the warm sector overspreads the
area. Most of the precipitation associated with this system
should be confined to near or north of the track, with only low
chances here. Cooler, but near normal temperatures return by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Broken mid to high level cloud deck will continue to build in
across the region overnight. Cigs over E MN & W WI will
gradually lower after sunrise this morning through the
afternoon. Only EAU looks to fall to MVFR by Wednesday evening.
RNH & MSP likely remain low VFR until after 06Z Thursday. Winds
will be light and variable, primarily from the SE, around 5
knots are expected into Wednesday morning before a weak surface
low moves across Central MN. Western MN sites will see winds
shift to the northwest this afternoon and increase to around 10
knots. Meanwhile, areas east of the low will continue to see
southeasterly winds the remainder of the period. Winds appear to
turn light and variable again Wednesday night.

KMSP...A few forecast models are showing potential for MVFR
cigs but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at
this time. Adjusted the timing for the PROB30 Wednesday evening
into Wednesday night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, chc -SHRA/MVFR. Wind N 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW bcmg S 5-10kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S 10-20G25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...BPH